Karachi: Stocks, rupee flat; overnight rates up

Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) ended almost flat on Friday in low volume ahead of the weekend as investors remained cautious on the economic costs following the devastation caused by the floods.

KSE 100-share index ended 0.13 percent, or 12.74 points, higher at 9,860.35 on turnover of 43.3 million shares.

“The equity market remained stagnant with low volumes ahead of the weekend,” said Asad Iqbal, chief investment officer at Faysal Asset Management Ltd.

“However timely aid for reconstruction and rehabilitation and relaxation of International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) conditional ties could potentially be catalysts for the market.”

The floods, triggered by torrential monsoon rains, have killed up to 1,600 people, and have disrupted the lives of about 20 million people, nearly 12 percent of the population.

Authorities are assessing the damage but the finance ministry said it was hard to give an exact number. It said last week the floods meant the country would miss this year’s 4.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target.

Growth was 4.1 percent in the last fiscal year. With higher transport costs and food shortages, inflation, and the public anger it could spark, is a major worry. In the currency market, the rupee ended almost flat at 85.62/67 to the dollar, compared with Thursday’s close of 85.62/70.

Dealers said the rupee could come under pressure in the short-term because of higher demand for dollars for import payments. The rupee fell to a record low of 85.80 on July 12 amid high demand for dollars from importers as well as on debt repayments.

In the money market, overnight rates rose to 12.90 percent compared with Thursday’s close of 10 percent amid tight liquidity in the interbank market. Dealers said there were scheduled outflows of 33.5 billion rupees against which the State Bank of Pakistan injected 17.7 billion rupees.

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SBP to keep rates steady for now

REUTERS FORECAST : A Reuters poll found 12 of 15 analysts expected that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 12.5 percent when it sets monetary policy for August and September in a meeting on July 30, but further tightening could be coming when SBP meets next in September.

“The way things are poised to happen in the near future (IMF targets being missed, electricity tariffs being raised etc.), it might be possible a rate hike could be seen in the September monetary policy,” said Khalid Iqbal, director at Invest & Finance Securities Ltd, in an email to Reuters.

Analysts said a hike in the policy rate for the next two months could hurt economic growth.

“Any further tightening at this stage would, in our opinion, compromise even our moderate growth target of 4 percent for FY11,” said Zainab Jabbar, head of equity at IGI Finex Securities.

However three analysts expected that the SBP to raise its key policy rate by 50 basis points because of a widening fiscal deficit.

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